After more than a decade of development, Apple is finally preparing to ship its first foldable smartphone. However, getting the device into your hands might be difficult—and expensive—when it launches. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that initial production numbers will be low, leading to immediate sell-outs and significant gray-market premiums.
Limited supply drives up demand
Apple has spent years refining its folding technology to ensure build quality meets its high standards. This caution comes at the cost of volume. Kuo estimates Apple will produce only 7 million to 8 million units by the end of the year, though some reports suggest this number may rise to 10 million.
Despite a likely retail price tag of $2,500, demand is expected to outstrip supply significantly. The scarcity is intentional, driven by manufacturing constraints and quality control measures rather than a lack of consumer interest.
The resale market premium
Historically, major iPhone redesigns trigger gray-market activity. Kuo predicts the foldable iPhone will see similar behavior, with resale prices jumping 50% to 100% above retail in the early days. This premium is expected to persist until supply chains stabilize and production scales up.
The situation mirrors the launch of the iPhone X, which faced shortages despite its high cost. The device sold one unit every three seconds in Europe shortly after release, demonstrating that Apple’s brand loyalty can overcome both price barriers and availability issues.
Targeting business users
Apple is likely positioning this device as a productivity tool for executives and frequent travelers. Much like the iPhone X became popular among business users, the foldable form factor offers a larger screen for field work without carrying a tablet.
Marketing efforts will focus on these professional use cases, supported by new software features in iOS 27 and Apple Intelligence integration. The company aims to capture roughly 29% of the global foldable market share with this launch.
A new price ceiling?
The iPhone X broke the psychological $1,000 barrier for smartphones nearly a decade ago. Today, consumers are accustomed to higher prices, but a $2,500 device tests that limit further. Apple is betting that premium consumers will pay for innovation and exclusivity.
True demand metrics won’t be clear until late 2026 or early 2027, once holiday sales conclude and production issues resolve. Until then, the scarcity itself serves as a marketing tool, keeping interest high while Apple ramps up manufacturing capabilities.
What this means for you
If you are waiting to buy a foldable iPhone at launch, expect to pay significantly more than the MSRP or wait months for availability. The initial shortage is likely by design, creating hype and exclusivity around the new form factor.
Source: Computerworld
Over to you: Would you wait for supply to stabilize, or pay a premium to get a foldable iPhone on day one?
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